Why I start projects late

Starting late means you've watched the early movers fail.

You know what to skip.

The early mover gets the press. The early mover also gets every possible mistake there is to make in a new space. They learn each one expensively. They publish about half of what they learn. The other half stays inside the company and dies with it.

The late starter benefits from the visible mistakes without paying their cost.

This isn't free. Starting late means you're behind on brand recognition, network effects, and the early-adopter audience. Those are real costs. They're also recoverable. You can build them later if you start with the right product.

The mistakes the early movers made are not recoverable. They were burned through. The late starter gets to skip them.

Three things I look for before entering a space:

What's the standard mistake everyone makes in year one of this category? If I can name it, I can skip it.

What's the convention that the first wave converged on? Should I respect it or break it? If I respect it, why? If I break it, why?

Who's the fifth-place player in the category? Often more useful than the first. They've watched everyone above them. They know what works.

The disadvantage of being late is real but smaller than the advantage of being calibrated.

Don't romanticize being first. Romanticize being right.

Late and right beats early and wrong almost every time.